Estadísticas |
|
|
Consumos Abastecidos por Cosechas Nacionales
| Sector |
Consumo
Humano |
Alimentos
Balanceados |
Engordadores |
Porcicultores |
Avicultores |
Lechero |
Almidonera |
Otros |
Sumas |
| Sinaloa |
1,461,000 |
60,000 |
425,000 |
50,000 |
50,000 |
50,000 |
50,000 |
2,146,000 |
|
| Jalisco |
600,000 |
100,000 |
80,000 |
40,000 |
150,000 |
100,000 |
50,000 |
1,120,000 |
|
| Chiapas |
415,000 |
30,000 |
15,000 |
35,000 |
495,000 |
||||
| Bajío |
380,000 |
50,000 |
35,000 |
20,000 |
20,000 |
10,000 |
40,000 |
555,000 |
|
| Chihuahua |
110,000 |
15,000 |
10,000 |
48,000 |
183,000 |
||||
| Tamaulipas |
100,000 |
20,000 |
7,000 |
2,000 |
5,000 |
134,000 |
|||
| Sureste |
300,000 |
20,000 |
25,000 |
40,000 |
385,000 |
||||
| Valles
Altos |
200,000 |
60,000 |
7,000 |
25,000 |
30,000 |
20,000 |
342,000 |
||
| Otros |
145,000 |
145,000 |
|||||||
| Total
Maíz Nal. |
3,711,000 |
355,000 |
529,000 |
192,000 |
330,000 |
188,000 |
110,000 |
90,000 |
5,505,000 |
| Consumo
Anual al Nivel Nacional |
Consumo
Anual |
PARTICIPACIÓN
AL TOTAL |
| MAÍZ
BLANCO |
10.5
MTM |
45.5% |
| Harina
de Maíz nixtamalizado |
3.O
MTM |
13.0% |
| Tortilla
Tradicional Urbano |
2.8
MTM |
12.1% |
| Tortilla
Tradicional Rural |
2.9
MTM |
12.6% |
| Suma
de Consumo de Maíz Blanco |
8.7
MTM |
37.7% |
| Consumo
Pecuario en el Sector Rural (Estimado) |
1.8
MTM |
7.8% |
| MAÍZ
AMARILLO |
12.6
MTM |
54.5% |
| Almidón
y sus Derivados |
2.2
MTM |
9.5% |
| Cereales
y Botanas (Incluye
Grits) |
0.4
MTM |
1.7% |
| Sector
Pecuario Plantas Integradas |
3.9
MTM |
16.9% |
| Sector
Pecuario Plantas Independientes |
2.2
MTM |
9.5% |
| Otros
Consumos del Sector Pecuario (Importaciones
de Maíz Quebrado + Sorgo equivalente en Maíz) |
3.9
MTM |
16.9% |
| Suma
para el Sector Pecuario |
10.0
MTM |
43.3% |
| Demanda
Nacional Total |
Consumo |
PARTICIPACIÓN
AL TOTAL |
| Por
la Producción de Harina |
3.0
MTM |
12.6% |
| De
Masa/Tortilla (Método Tradicional) |
2.8
MTM |
11.7% |
| Para
Tortilla Tradicional Rural |
2.9
MTM |
12.2% |
| Suma
de la Demanda para Máiz Blanco |
8.7
MTM |
36.5% |
| Almidón
y sus Derivados |
2.4
MTM |
10.1% |
| Cereales
y Botanas (Incluye Grits) |
0.4
MTM |
1.7% |
| Sector
Pecuario Plantas Integradas |
3.9
MTM |
16.4% |
| Sector
Pecuario Plantas Independientes |
2.2
MTM |
9.2% |
| Consumo
Animal en el Sector Rural (Ponderado) |
1.8
MTM |
7.5% |
| Demanda
Real de maíz Amarillo |
10.7
MTM |
44.9% |
| Demanda
Atendida por otros Granos y/o maíz quebrado e importaciones no
controladas |
4.4
MTM |
18.5% |
| DEMANDA
PONDERADA DE MAÍZ AMARILLO |
15.1
MTM |
63.5% |
DEMANDA TOTAL APARENTE PARA MAÍZ AL NIVEL NACIONAL
| Demanda
total aprente para Maíz al nivel nacional |
23.1
MTM |
100% |
| Producción
Nacional de Maíz Comercial |
8.2
MTM |
34.5% |
| MAÍZ
BLANCO |
7.7
MTM |
32.3% |
| Sinaloa |
2.6
MTM |
10.9% |
| Jalisco |
1.2
MTM |
5.0% |
| Bajío |
0.8
MTM |
3.4% |
| Chiapas |
0.8
MTM |
3.4% |
| Otros
Estados (Puebla,
Veracruz, Guerrero, México, Chihuahua y diversos en Occidente
y Sur) |
2.3
MTM |
9.7% |
| MAÍZ
AMARILLO |
0.5
MTM |
2.1% |
| Chihuahua |
0.3
MTM |
1.3% |
| Sinaloa |
0.2
MTM |
0.8% |
| IMPORTACIONES |
6.7
MTM |
28.2% |
| MAÍZ
BLANCO
(TLC y Sobrecupos) |
1.1
MTM |
4.6% |
| MAÍZ
AMARILLO (TLC
y Sobrecupos) |
5.1
MTM |
21.4% |
| Maíz
"Trabajado" y otras No Controladas |
0.5
MTM |
2.1% |
| DISPONIBILIDAD
TOTAL AJUSTADA DE MAÍZ |
15.4
MTM |
64.7% |
| Oferta
o Disponibilidad resultante de otros granos o importaciones no controladas
y Maíz "Quebrado" |
8.4
MTM |
35.3% |
| DEMANDA
ANUAL APARENTE PARA MAÍZ A NIVEL NACIONAL |
23.8
MTM |
100% |
Balanza de Oferta / Demanda 2000-2005
| OFERTA |
|||||
Inventario
Inicial |
Produccion
Comercial |
Importaciones |
Disponible
Total |
||
Cupos
|
Trabajado |
||||
2000 |
1,021.1 |
7,854.7 |
5,298.7 |
260.1 |
14,434.1 |
2001 |
2,354.9
|
8,239.0
|
6,138.0
|
862.9
|
17,594.9
|
2002 |
3,163.8
|
7,852.3
|
5,460.5
|
2,029.9
|
18,506.6
|
2003 |
3,036.6
|
7,900.5 |
5,724.8 |
2,685.0 |
19,346.8
|
2004 |
2,680.7
|
8,048.1
|
3,253.6 |
1,952.1 |
15,934.5
|
2005* |
2,299.1
|
8,600.0 |
5,000.0 |
2,200.0 |
18,099.1
|
| *Estimado por CANAMI | |||||
| DEMANDA |
|||||||
| Harina
de Maíz Nixtamalizado1 |
Industria
(Almidón, Botanas, Cereales y Semilla) |
Suma
Consumos de CANAMI |
Otros
Consumos de maíz para Alimentación Humana2 |
Alimentación
Animal |
Consumos
|
Inv
Finales
|
|
| 2000 | 2,685.0
|
2,224.8
|
4,909.8
|
2,986.0
|
4,184.0
|
12,079.8
|
2,354.9
|
| 2001 | 2,705.1
|
2,754.9 |
5,460.0
|
2,875.0
|
6,096.0
|
14,431.0
|
3,163.8 |
| 2002 | 2,719.6
|
2,383.0 |
5,102.6 |
2,810.0
|
7,557.4
|
15,470.0
|
3,036.6
|
| 2003 | 2,756.3
|
2,466.4
|
5,222.7
|
2,750.0
|
8,693.4 |
16,666.1
|
2,680.7
|
| 2004 | 2,790.8 |
2,552.7 |
5,343.5
|
2,788.9 |
5,503.0
|
13,635.4
|
2,299.1 |
| 2005 | 3,075.0 |
2,756.7 |
5,831.7
|
2,880.0
|
6,700.0 |
15,411.7 |
2,687.4
|
Balanza
2005 con desgloce mensual para cosechas e importaciones y de los principales
consumidores |
| OFERTA
|
|||||
| 2005 |
Inv
Iniciales |
Producción
Comercial |
Importaciones |
Disponible
Total |
|
Cupos
|
Trabajados |
||||
Enero |
2,299.1
|
600.0
|
25.0
|
150 |
3,074.1
|
Febrero |
1,367.5
|
370.0 |
150.0 |
300 |
2,187.5
|
Marzo |
1,072.3
|
95.0
|
300.0 |
300 |
1,767.3
|
Abril |
599.5
|
100.0 |
800.0
|
175 |
1,674.5 |
Mayo |
374.5
|
250.0 |
500.0
|
150
|
1,274.5
|
Junio |
197.7
|
2,300.0
|
750.0 |
150
|
3,397.7
|
Julio |
1,804.7
|
1,100.0
|
500.0 |
150 |
3,554.7 |
Agosto |
1,949.2
|
200.0
|
450.0 |
200 |
2,799.2
|
Septiembre |
1,329.7 |
100.0
|
425.0
|
200
|
2,054.7 |
Octubre |
874.3
|
400.0
|
400.0 |
150
|
1,824.3 |
Noviembre |
756.3
|
1,285.0
|
400.0 |
175 |
2,616.3
|
Diciembre |
1,520.0
|
1,800.0
|
300.0 |
100 |
3,720.0 |
Total |
2,299.1
|
8,600.0 |
5,000.0 |
2,200.0 |
18,099.1
|
| DEMANDA
|
|||||||
2005 |
Harina
de Maíz Nixtamalizado1
|
Industria
(Almidón, Botanas, Cereales y Semilla)
|
Suma
Consumos de CANAMI
|
Otros
Consumos de maíz para Alimentación Humana 2
|
Alimentación
Animal
|
Consumos
|
Inv
Finales
|
Enero |
242.2
|
199.4 |
441.6 |
240.0
|
1,025.0
|
1,706.6
|
1,367.5
|
Febrero |
250.0
|
250.2 |
500.2 |
240.0 |
375.0 |
1,115.2
|
1,072.3
|
Marzo |
252.5
|
225.3 |
477.8 |
240.0 |
450.0
|
1,167.8 |
599.5 |
Abril |
255. |
229.9 |
485.0 |
240.0 |
575.0 |
1,300.0
|
0374.5
|
Mayo |
257.6
|
229.3 |
486.9 |
240.0 |
350.0 |
1,076.9 |
197.7
|
Junio |
260.2
|
242.8
|
503.0
|
240.0 |
850.0
|
1,593.0
|
1,804.7 |
Julio |
262.8
|
227.7 |
490.4 |
240.0 |
875.0 |
1,605.4
|
1,949.2
|
Agosto |
255.0
|
224.6 |
479.6 |
240.0 |
750.0
|
1,469.6
|
1,329.7
|
Septiembre |
257.0
|
283.3 |
540.3
|
240.0 |
400.0
|
1,180.3
|
874.3 |
Octubre |
260.0
|
218.0 |
478.0 |
240.0 |
350.0 |
1,068.0
|
756.3
|
Noviembre |
262.8
|
218.6 |
481.4 |
240.0 |
375.0 |
1,096.4
|
1,520.0
|
Diciembre |
260.0
|
207.6 |
467.6 |
240.0 |
325.0
|
1,032.6 |
2,687.4
|
Total |
3,075.0
|
2,756.7
|
5,831.7 |
2,880.0
|
6,700.0
|
15,411.7
|
2,687.4 |
45 million bushels from last month due to smaller exports. Exports are down 50 million bushels due to increased competition from Argentina and South Africa and smaller global imports. A 5-million- bushel drop in U.S. corn imports is partially offsetting. Domestic use for 2004/05 is unchanged from last month. Despite the increase in stocks, the projected price range of corn is raised 10 cents on both ends to $1.95 to $2.15 per bushel. Projected prices are raised because the prices received by farmers (reported by NASS) have remained well above spot prices. This suggests that farmers forward contracted a larger-than-expected portion of the crop when prices were much higher. Due to a slower-than-expected pace of imports, projected U.S. barley imports are reduced 5 million Bushels, resulting in a 5-million-bushel decline in ending stocks. Projected barley prices are unchanged. Projected oat prices are $1.40 to $1.50 per bushel, 5 cents higher than last month due to stronger-than- expected prices to date. No changes are made in sorghum supply and use. Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply, use, and stocks projections are up from last month. Global production is raised 7.1 million tons to a record 1,004 million tons. Production for 2003/04 is increased 2 million tons. Larger 2004/05 coarse grain crops are projected for India and Argentina (each up 2.1 million tons), China (up 1.7 million tons), South Africa (up 1.4 million tons) and Mexico (up 1.1 million tons) with smaller increases projected for other countries. Brazil's corn crop is 2 million tons lower. Argentina's 2003/04 corn crop is increased 1 million tons. Global
2004/05 consumption of coarse grains is up 2.8 million tons. The largest
increases projected are for India and Argentina which offset reduced
consumption in a number of countries. Global imports are down 0.8 million
tons from last month with small decreases projected for Turkey, Mexico,
the United States, China, Columbia, South Africa, and Israel. The largest
increases in exports are projected for Argentina (up 1 million tons),
Ukraine (up 0.7 million tons), and South Africa (up 0.5 million tons).
These are offset by smaller exports from Brazil (down 2 million tons),
the United States (down 1.3 million tons), and Canada (down 0.5 million
tons). Global coarse grain stocks increase 4.7 million tons from last
month and are |
U.S.
Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
|
||||
Item : |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
2004/05February |
Projections March |
CORN
|
||||
Area
: |
Million
acres |
|||
Planted : |
78.9 |
78.6 |
80.9 |
80.9 |
Harvested : |
69.3 |
70.9 |
73.6 |
73.6 |
Yield
per harvested : |
Bushels |
|||
acre : |
129.3
|
142.2 |
160.4 |
160.4 |
:
Million bushels |
||||
Beginning
stocks |
1,596 |
1,087 |
958 |
958 |
Production
|
8,967
|
10,089 |
11,807 |
11,807 |
Imports
: |
14
|
14 |
15
|
10 |
Supply, total : |
10,578 |
11,190 |
12,780 |
12,775 |
Feed
and residual |
5,563 |
5,798 |
6,075 |
6,075 |
Food,
seed & industrial |
2,340
|
2,537 |
2,795 |
2,795 |
Ethanol for fue |
2/ 996 |
l1,168 |
1,425 |
1,425 |
Domestic, total |
7,903
|
8,335 |
8,870 |
8,870 |
Exports
|
1,588 |
1,897 |
1,900 |
1,850 |
Use,
total |
9,491 |
10,232 |
10,770 |
10,720 |
Ending
stocks, total |
1,087 |
958 |
2,010 |
2,055 |
CCC inventory |
4
|
0 |
1
|
1 |
Free stocks |
1,083 |
958 |
2,009 |
2,054 |
Outstanding loans |
277 |
164 |
325 |
300 |
Avg.
farm price ($/bu) 3/ |
2.32 |
2.42 |
1.85-
2.05 |
1.95-
2.15 |
Note:
Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September
1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further
breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table
5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery
System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted
average price received by farmers. |
||||
World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) |
|||||||
Region
Beginning stocks |
Production
|
Supply
Imports |
Feed |
Domestic
Exports |
UseTotal |
Ending stocks |
|
2002 |
2003 |
||||||
World
3/ : |
147.89 |
601.85 |
76.94 |
433.11 |
627.35 |
78.18 |
122.39 |
United
States : |
40.55 |
227.77 |
0.37 |
141.30 |
200.75 |
40.33
|
27.60 |
Total
foreign : |
107.34 |
374.08 |
76.58 |
291.80
|
426.60
|
37.85
|
94.79 |
Major
exporters4: |
2.27 |
25.18 |
0.44 |
6.50 |
12.62
|
12.30 |
2.97 |
Argentina
: |
0.33 |
15.50 |
0.00 |
2.50 |
4.10 |
11.20 |
0.53 |
South Africa : |
1.94 |
9.68 |
0.44 |
4.00 |
8.52 |
1.10 |
2.44 |
Major importers 5: |
11.25 |
89.61 |
48.92
|
93.88
|
133.92 |
2.52 |
13.35 |
Egypt
: |
0.25 |
6.00 |
4.85 |
9.10 |
10.90 |
0.00 |
0.20 |
EU-25
6/ : |
2.66 |
49.36 |
4.33 |
38.66 |
49.53
|
2.00 |
4.83 |
Japan : |
1.39 |
0.00 |
16.86 |
12.30 |
16.80 |
0.00 |
1.46 |
Mexico : |
3.40 |
19.28 |
5.27 |
9.50 |
24.70 |
0.01 |
3.24 |
Southeast
Asia 7: |
1.05 |
14.85 |
4.15 |
13.20 |
18.50 |
0.51 |
1.04 |
South
Korea : |
1.17 |
0.07 |
8.79 |
6.57 |
8.75 |
0.00 |
1.29 |
Selected other : |
|||||||
Brazil : |
0.52 |
44.50 |
0.79 |
32.00 |
37.50 |
4.63 |
3.68 |
Canada : |
1.06 |
9.00
|
3.95
|
10.28 |
12.58 |
0.31 |
1.11 |
China
: |
84.79 |
121.30 |
0.03 |
96.00 |
125.90 |
15.24 |
64.97 |
Other
Europe : |
1.76 |
17.77 |
0.54 |
14.27 |
16.74 |
0.74 |
2.58 |
FSU-12 : |
1.56 |
8.54 |
0.20 |
6.44 |
7.92 |
0.85 |
1.53 |
Russia : |
0.08 |
1.55 |
0.10
|
1.20 |
1.60 |
0.01
|
0.11 |
2003/04 (Estimated) |
|||||||
World
3/ : |
122.39 |
623.31 |
76.98 |
445.04 |
647.59 |
76.6 | |