Estadísticas






Consumos Abastecidos por Cosechas Nacionales

Sector
Consumo Humano
Alimentos Balanceados
Engordadores
Porcicultores
Avicultores
Lechero
Almidonera
Otros
Sumas
Sinaloa
1,461,000
60,000
425,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
2,146,000
Jalisco
600,000
100,000
80,000
40,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
1,120,000
Chiapas
415,000
30,000
15,000
35,000
495,000
Bajío
380,000
50,000
35,000
20,000
20,000
10,000
40,000
555,000
Chihuahua
110,000
15,000
10,000
48,000
183,000
Tamaulipas
100,000
20,000
7,000
2,000
5,000
134,000
Sureste
300,000
20,000
25,000
40,000
385,000
Valles Altos
200,000
60,000
7,000
25,000
30,000
20,000
342,000
Otros
145,000
145,000
Total Maíz Nal.
3,711,000
355,000
529,000
192,000
330,000
188,000
110,000
90,000
5,505,000


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Demanda Anual Aparente

Consumo Anual al Nivel Nacional
Consumo Anual
PARTICIPACIÓN AL TOTAL
MAÍZ BLANCO
10.5 MTM
45.5%
Harina de Maíz nixtamalizado
3.O MTM
13.0%
Tortilla Tradicional Urbano
2.8 MTM
12.1%
Tortilla Tradicional Rural
2.9 MTM
12.6%
Suma de Consumo de Maíz Blanco
8.7 MTM
37.7%
Consumo Pecuario en el Sector Rural (Estimado)
1.8 MTM
7.8%

MAÍZ AMARILLO
12.6 MTM
54.5%
Almidón y sus Derivados
2.2 MTM
9.5%
Cereales y Botanas (Incluye Grits)
0.4 MTM
1.7%
Sector Pecuario Plantas Integradas
3.9 MTM
16.9%
Sector Pecuario Plantas Independientes
2.2 MTM
9.5%
Otros Consumos del Sector Pecuario (Importaciones de Maíz Quebrado + Sorgo equivalente en Maíz)
3.9 MTM
16.9%
Suma para el Sector Pecuario
10.0 MTM
43.3%




Demanda Anual Aparente

Demanda Nacional Total
Consumo
PARTICIPACIÓN AL TOTAL
Por la Producción de Harina
3.0 MTM
12.6%
De Masa/Tortilla (Método Tradicional)
2.8 MTM
11.7%
Para Tortilla Tradicional Rural
2.9 MTM
12.2%
Suma de la Demanda para Máiz Blanco
8.7 MTM
36.5%
Almidón y sus Derivados
2.4 MTM
10.1%
Cereales y Botanas (Incluye Grits)
0.4 MTM
1.7%
Sector Pecuario Plantas Integradas
3.9 MTM
16.4%
Sector Pecuario Plantas Independientes
2.2 MTM
9.2%
Consumo Animal en el Sector Rural (Ponderado)
1.8 MTM
7.5%
Demanda Real de maíz Amarillo
10.7 MTM
44.9%
Demanda Atendida por otros Granos y/o maíz quebrado e importaciones no controladas
4.4 MTM
18.5%
DEMANDA PONDERADA DE MAÍZ AMARILLO
15.1 MTM
63.5%

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DEMANDA TOTAL APARENTE PARA MAÍZ AL NIVEL NACIONAL

Demanda total aprente para Maíz al nivel nacional
23.1 MTM
100%
Producción Nacional de Maíz Comercial
8.2 MTM
34.5%
MAÍZ BLANCO
7.7 MTM
32.3%
Sinaloa
2.6 MTM
10.9%
Jalisco
1.2 MTM
5.0%
Bajío
0.8 MTM
3.4%
Chiapas
0.8 MTM
3.4%
Otros Estados (Puebla, Veracruz, Guerrero, México, Chihuahua y diversos en Occidente y Sur)
2.3 MTM
9.7%
MAÍZ AMARILLO
0.5 MTM
2.1%
Chihuahua
0.3 MTM
1.3%
Sinaloa
0.2 MTM
0.8%
IMPORTACIONES
6.7 MTM
28.2%
MAÍZ BLANCO (TLC y Sobrecupos)
1.1 MTM
4.6%
MAÍZ AMARILLO (TLC y Sobrecupos)
5.1 MTM
21.4%
Maíz "Trabajado" y otras No Controladas
0.5 MTM
2.1%
DISPONIBILIDAD TOTAL AJUSTADA DE MAÍZ
15.4 MTM
64.7%
Oferta o Disponibilidad resultante de otros granos o importaciones no controladas y Maíz "Quebrado"
8.4 MTM
35.3%
DEMANDA ANUAL APARENTE PARA MAÍZ A NIVEL NACIONAL
23.8 MTM
100%

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Balanza de Oferta / Demanda 2000-2005

OFERTA
Inventario Inicial
Produccion Comercial
Importaciones
Disponible Total
Cupos
Trabajado
2000
1,021.1
7,854.7
5,298.7
260.1
14,434.1
2001
2,354.9
8,239.0
6,138.0
862.9
17,594.9
2002
3,163.8
7,852.3
5,460.5
2,029.9
18,506.6
2003
3,036.6
7,900.5
5,724.8
2,685.0
19,346.8
2004
2,680.7
8,048.1
3,253.6
1,952.1
15,934.5
2005*
2,299.1
8,600.0
5,000.0
2,200.0
18,099.1
*Estimado por CANAMI        



DEMANDA
 
Harina de Maíz Nixtamalizado1
Industria (Almidón, Botanas, Cereales y Semilla)
Suma Consumos de CANAMI
Otros Consumos de maíz para Alimentación Humana2
Alimentación Animal
Consumos
Inv Finales

 

2000
2,685.0
2,224.8
4,909.8
2,986.0
4,184.0
12,079.8
2,354.9
2001
2,705.1
2,754.9
5,460.0
2,875.0
6,096.0
14,431.0
3,163.8
2002
2,719.6
2,383.0
5,102.6
2,810.0
7,557.4
15,470.0
3,036.6
2003
2,756.3
2,466.4
5,222.7
2,750.0
8,693.4
16,666.1
2,680.7
2004
2,790.8
2,552.7
5,343.5
2,788.9
5,503.0
13,635.4
2,299.1
2005
3,075.0
2,756.7
5,831.7
2,880.0
6,700.0
15,411.7
2,687.4

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Balanza 2005 con desgloce mensual para cosechas e importaciones y de los principales consumidores

OFERTA
2005
Inv Iniciales
Producción Comercial
Importaciones
Disponible Total
Cupos
Trabajados
Enero
2,299.1
600.0
25.0
150
3,074.1
Febrero
1,367.5
370.0
150.0
300
2,187.5
Marzo
1,072.3
95.0
300.0
300
1,767.3
Abril
599.5
100.0
800.0
175
1,674.5
Mayo
374.5
250.0
500.0
150
1,274.5
Junio
197.7
2,300.0
750.0
150
3,397.7
Julio
1,804.7
1,100.0
500.0
150
3,554.7
Agosto
1,949.2
200.0
450.0
200
2,799.2
Septiembre
1,329.7
100.0
425.0
200
2,054.7
Octubre
874.3
400.0
400.0
150
1,824.3
Noviembre
756.3
1,285.0
400.0
175
2,616.3
Diciembre
1,520.0
1,800.0
300.0
100
3,720.0
Total
2,299.1
8,600.0
5,000.0
2,200.0
18,099.1



DEMANDA
2005
Harina de Maíz Nixtamalizado1

Industria (Almidón, Botanas, Cereales y Semilla)

Suma Consumos de CANAMI

Otros Consumos de maíz para Alimentación Humana 2

Alimentación Animal

Consumos

Inv Finales


Enero
242.2
199.4
441.6
240.0
1,025.0
1,706.6
1,367.5
Febrero
250.0
250.2
500.2
240.0
375.0
1,115.2
1,072.3
Marzo
252.5
225.3
477.8
240.0
450.0
1,167.8
599.5
Abril
255.
229.9
485.0
240.0
575.0
1,300.0
0374.5
Mayo
257.6
229.3
486.9
240.0
350.0
1,076.9
197.7
Junio
260.2
242.8
503.0
240.0
850.0
1,593.0
1,804.7
Julio
262.8
227.7
490.4
240.0
875.0
1,605.4
1,949.2
Agosto
255.0
224.6
479.6
240.0
750.0
1,469.6
1,329.7
Septiembre
257.0
283.3
540.3
240.0
400.0
1,180.3
874.3
Octubre
260.0
218.0
478.0
240.0
350.0
1,068.0
756.3
Noviembre
262.8
218.6
481.4
240.0
375.0
1,096.4
1,520.0
Diciembre
260.0
207.6
467.6
240.0
325.0
1,032.6
2,687.4
Total
3,075.0
2,756.7
5,831.7
2,880.0
6,700.0
15,411.7
2,687.4


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COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2004/05 ending stocks of corn are up



45 million bushels from last month due to smaller exports. Exports are down 50 million bushels due to increased competition from Argentina and South Africa and smaller global imports. A 5-million-
bushel drop in U.S. corn imports is partially offsetting. Domestic use for 2004/05 is unchanged from last month. Despite the increase in stocks, the projected price range of corn is raised 10 cents on both ends to $1.95 to $2.15 per bushel. Projected prices are raised because the prices received by farmers (reported by NASS) have remained well above spot prices. This suggests that farmers forward contracted a larger-than-expected portion of the crop when prices were much higher.

Due to a slower-than-expected pace of imports, projected U.S. barley imports are reduced 5 million Bushels, resulting in a 5-million-bushel decline in ending stocks. Projected barley prices are unchanged. Projected oat prices are $1.40 to $1.50 per bushel, 5 cents higher than last month due to stronger-than- expected prices to date. No changes are made in sorghum supply and use.

Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply, use, and stocks projections are up from last month. Global production is raised 7.1 million tons to a record 1,004 million tons. Production for 2003/04 is increased 2 million tons. Larger 2004/05 coarse grain crops are projected for India and Argentina (each up 2.1 million tons), China (up 1.7 million tons), South Africa (up 1.4 million tons) and Mexico (up 1.1 million tons) with smaller increases projected for other countries. Brazil's corn crop is 2 million tons lower. Argentina's 2003/04 corn crop is increased 1 million tons.

Global 2004/05 consumption of coarse grains is up 2.8 million tons. The largest increases projected are for India and Argentina which offset reduced consumption in a number of countries. Global imports are down 0.8 million tons from last month with small decreases projected for Turkey, Mexico, the United States, China, Columbia, South Africa, and Israel. The largest increases in exports are projected for Argentina (up 1 million tons), Ukraine (up 0.7 million tons), and South Africa (up 0.5 million tons). These are offset by smaller exports from Brazil (down 2 million tons), the United States (down 1.3 million tons), and Canada (down 0.5 million tons). Global coarse grain stocks increase 4.7 million tons from last month and are
up 32 million tons from last year. The largest month-to-month changes in projected ending stocks are for China (up 1.6 million tons), the United States (up 1 million tons), South Africa (up 0.9 million tons), Mexico (up 0.8 million tons), Brazil (down 0.8 million tons) and Ukraine (down 0.5 million tons)
.


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U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
Item :
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05February
Projections
March
CORN
Area :
Million acres
Planted :
78.9
78.6
80.9
80.9
Harvested :
69.3
70.9
73.6
73.6
Yield per harvested :
Bushels
acre :
129.3
142.2
160.4
160.4
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks
1,596
1,087
958
958
Production
8,967
10,089
11,807
11,807
Imports :
14
14
15
10
Supply, total :
10,578
11,190
12,780
12,775
Feed and residual
5,563
5,798
6,075
6,075
Food, seed & industrial
2,340
2,537
2,795
2,795
Ethanol for fue
2/ 996
l1,168
1,425
1,425
Domestic, total
7,903
8,335
8,870
8,870
Exports
1,588
1,897
1,900
1,850
Use, total
9,491
10,232
10,770
10,720
Ending stocks, total
1,087
958
2,010
2,055
CCC inventory
4
0
1
1
Free stocks
1,083
958
2,009
2,054
Outstanding loans
277
164
325
300
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/
2.32
2.42
1.85- 2.05
1.95- 2.15
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.



World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons)
Region Beginning stocks
Production
Supply Imports
Feed
Domestic Exports
UseTotal
Ending stocks
2002
2003
World 3/ :
147.89
601.85
76.94
433.11
627.35
78.18
122.39
United States :
40.55
227.77
0.37
141.30
200.75
40.33
27.60
Total foreign :
107.34
374.08
76.58
291.80
426.60
37.85
94.79
Major exporters4:
2.27
25.18
0.44
6.50
12.62
12.30
2.97
Argentina :
0.33
15.50
0.00
2.50
4.10
11.20
0.53
South Africa :
1.94
9.68
0.44
4.00
8.52
1.10
2.44
Major importers 5:
11.25
89.61
48.92
93.88
133.92
2.52
13.35
Egypt :
0.25
6.00
4.85
9.10
10.90
0.00
0.20
EU-25 6/ :
2.66
49.36
4.33
38.66
49.53
2.00
4.83
Japan :
1.39
0.00
16.86
12.30
16.80
0.00
1.46
Mexico :
3.40
19.28
5.27
9.50
24.70
0.01
3.24
Southeast Asia 7:
1.05
14.85
4.15
13.20
18.50
0.51
1.04
South Korea :
1.17
0.07
8.79
6.57
8.75
0.00
1.29
Selected other :
Brazil :
0.52
44.50
0.79
32.00
37.50
4.63
3.68
Canada :
1.06
9.00
3.95
10.28
12.58
0.31
1.11
China :
84.79
121.30
0.03
96.00
125.90
15.24
64.97
Other Europe :
1.76
17.77
0.54
14.27
16.74
0.74
2.58
FSU-12 :
1.56
8.54
0.20
6.44
7.92
0.85
1.53
Russia :
0.08
1.55
0.10
1.20
1.60
0.01
0.11

2003/04 (Estimated)
World 3/ :
122.39
623.31
76.98
445.04
647.59
76.64
98.12
United States :
27.60
256.28
0.36
147.27
211.72
48.18
24.34
Total foreign :
94.79
367.04
76.62
297.77
435.86
28.46
73.78
Major exporters 4/ :
2.97
24.70
0.31
7.10
13.30
11.45
3.23
Argentina :
0.53
15.00
0.01
3.00
4.60
10.75
0.19
South Africa :
2.44
9.70
0.30
4.10
8.70
0.70
3.04
Major importers 5/ :
13.35
83.49
49.42
90.96
130.83
1.20
14.23
Egypt :
0.20
6.15
3.74
8.10
9.90
0.00
0.19
EU-25 6/ :
4.83
40.05
5.60
36.01
46.81
0.46
3.21
Japan :
1.46
0.00
16.78
12.40
16.90
0.00
1.34
Mexico :
3.24
21.80
5.71
11.20
26.40
0.01
4.34
Southeast Asia 7/ :
1.04
15.37
3.91
12.20
17.50
0.73
2.08
South Korea :
1.29
0.07
8.78
6.60
8.57
0.00
1.57
Selected other :
Brazil :
3.68
42.00
0.35
33.00
38.60
4.40
3.03
Canada :
1.11
9.60
2.04
8.74
11.24
0.37
1.14
China :
64.97
115.83
0.00
98.00
129.40
7.55
43.85
Other Europe :
2.58
14.35
0.86
13.98
16.51
0.28
1.01
FSU-12 :
1.53
11.54
0.64
9.56
11.05
1.26
1.40
Russia :
0.11
2.10
0.50
2.15
2.55
0.00
0.16
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years.
2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports.
3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some ountries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03).
7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

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Proyección 2004/05

World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)
Supply
Region
Beginning stocks
Total Production
Imports Domestic
Feed
Exports
Ending
stocks
February :
97.67
701.82
73.71
468.01
682.22
76.08
117.27
March :
98.12
706.37
73.03
467.61
682.45
74.44
122.04
United States :
February :
24.34
299.92
0.38
154.31
225.31
48.26
51.06
March :
24.34
299.92
0.25
154.31
225.31
46.99
52.21
Total foreign
February :
73.33
401.90
73.33
313.69
456.91
27.82
66.20
March :
73.78
406.45
72.78
313.29
457.14
27.45
69.83
Major exporters 4/ :
February :
3.33
27.20
0.26
6.80
13.00
14.00
3.79
March :
3.23
30.50
0.21
7.60
13.95
15.50
4.49
Argentina Feb :
0.39
17.50
0.01
2.70
4.30
13.00
0.60
Mar :
0.19
19.50
0.01
3.50
5.20
14.00
0.50
South Africa Feb :
2.94
9.70
0.25
4.10
8.70
1.00
3.19
Mar :
3.04
11.00
0.20
4.10
8.75
1.50
3.99
Major importers 5/ :
February :
13.60
96.24
45.96
98.40
139.32
1.01
15.46
March :
14.23
97.58
45.86
98.30
139.22
1.26
17.19
Egypt Feb:
0.19
6.20
4.30
8.60
10.50
0.00
0.19
Mar:
0.19
6.20
4.30
8.60
10.50
0.00
0.19
EU-25 6/ Feb :
3.26
52.98
2.50
41.30
52.70
0.50
5.54
Mar:
3.21
53.13
2.50
41.30
52.70
0.50
5.63
Japan Feb :
1.34
0.00
16.80
12.30
16.80
0.00
1.34
Mar:
1.34
0.00
16.80
12.30
16.80
0.00
1.34
Mexico Feb:
4.34
21.00
5.80
12.10
27.40
0.01
3.73
Mar:
4.34
22.00
5.50
12.10
27.40
0.01
4.43
S.-east Asia 7/Feb:
1.39
15.94
3.36
13.20
18.65
0.50
1.54
Mar :
2.08
16.14
3.56
13.10
18.55
0.75
2.47
South Korea Feb
1.57
0.07
8.50
6.50
8.57
:0.00
1.57
Mar :
1.57
0.07
8.50
6.50
8.57
0.00
1.57
Selected other :
Brazil Feb :
3.43
41.50
0.30
36.20
40.00
3.50
1.73
Mar :
3.03
39.50
0.50
35.00
40.60
1.50
0.93
Canada Feb :
1.14
8.85
2.00
7.70
10.40
0.30
1.29
Mar :
1.14
8.85
2.00
8.00
10.70
0.15
1.14
China Feb :
43.85
126.00
0.20
100.00
133.00
4.00
33.05
Mar :
43.85
128.00
0.10
100.00
133.00
4.00
34.95
Other Europe Feb :
0.98
23.32
0.44
15.63
19.32
1.90
3.52
Mar :
1.01
23.32
0.44
15.63
19.32
1.90
3.55
FSU-12 Feb :
1.40
15.10
0.58
11.37
13.01
1.83
2.24
Mar :
1.40
15.10
0.58
11.37
13.01
1.83
2.24
Russia Feb :
0.16
3.45
0.40
3.10
3.65
0.00
0.36
Mar :
0.16
3.45
0.40
3.10
3.65
0.00
0.36
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

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Perspectivas del mercado de Maíz Febrero 2005

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Artículos

New Crop Planting Progress and Conditions by Chris Morley

Planting began in earnest the week of April 18th and proceeded at near record pace. By May 23rd, it was
estimated that the total U.S. corn crop was approximately 95% planted as opposed to 85% last year and...

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USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2014

This report provides longrun baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2014.
Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and...

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World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates

WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are down 12 million bushels from last month due to a 17-million-bushel increase in domestic use that is partially offset by a 5- million-bushel increase in imports.


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Forecasting the Counter-Cyclical Payment Rate for U.S. Corn
An Application of the Futures Price Forecasting Model
The 2002 Farm Act provides for counter-cyclical payments when prices are below specified levels. Producers and policy analysts within USDA have a need to ...

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U.S. Agricultural Trade Update
Record Set as U.S. Agricultural Exports Top $61 Billion
in Calendar Year 2004; Imports Near $55 Billion

The value of U.S. agricultural exports equaled $61.3 billion for 2004, about $1.7 billion over...

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